If you’ve ever been to Atlanta or Texas in the summer it’s hot! Speaking first hand I’ve tried running in the mid-morning in both and was just exhausted and drenched in sweat 20 minutes later. Just sitting in the hot summer sun for an hour and you’ll be dying for some shade and water. In any sort of extreme weather there are going to be variables in how you feel and perform physically. I started thinking if there would be some sort of a betting angle in the dog days of summer when temperatures are at their highest and we’re more then mid-way through the season and pitchers and players might start to tire.
Overall the numbers don’t really lean towards whether teams score more or less runs than any other month. I took the last 30 games that every team played at home in August. Here’s the total over/unders:
428-425 (under produces 49.8%)
We can’t really take anything substantial from this unfortunately. My next step was to look at teams that typically play in warmer weather. My data sample included teams where the average high temperature is over 85 degrees. So the teams were: Rockies, Rangers, Angels, Astros, Royals, Cards, Reds, Braves, Phillies and Orioles. This produced an over/under total of:
136-145 (under produces 51.6%)
A slightly better betting angle here would be the under for these teams. Interesting enough the two teams that average the highest temperatures were the Rangers (average high of 96) and the Astros (93) both these teams had a over under total of:
16-39 (under produces 70%)
This isn’t the largest sample size but something that would be extremely profitable over the last three years anytime the Rangers and Astros play at home. Something certainly worth monitoring as we approach this August.