Recapping the 2015 NFL Betting Season

The 2015 NFL season was no doubt a wild one. In the day and age of high flying offenses the Super Bowl winning team had arguably the worst quarterback of the 2015 season.  There were some memorable bad beats including the Bucs vs. Giants where a lateral in the Bucs own end of the field resulted in the over covering (yes I had the over). I somehow weathered the storm this 2015 season and ended up with the following results:

Straight Up: 49-35-2 58.333%

Season Over/Under Win Totals: 2-2-1 50%

Here’s some of the team’s I did particularly well on:

Broncos: 6-2

Titans: 4-1-1

Colts: 5-1

Ravens: 4-2

Here’s some of the team’s I did not fair so well on:

Bucs: 1-4-1

Raiders: 3-5

49ers: 1-4

The Bad Bets

When I look back at the numbers the teams that I didn’t do well on I know exactly why and it’s a big No-No in any type of gambling. Personal bias. I’m admittedly a Bucs fan and absolutely loved Jameis Winston out of college. I watched nearly every one of his games at Florida State and didn’t care what the critics said about his off the field issues. I thought the Bucs would run a bit more of a pass heavy offense under their new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter when in reality the numbers did not bear that out at all. The Bucs ended up 27th in pass attempts and had the 4th highest rushing attempts of any team. Which doesn’t necessarily translate to a lot of overs.

My explanation for the 49ers is simply Colin Kaepernick. A personal bias of mine which it continues to be today (god knows why) is towards mobile QB’s. I extremely overvalued the 49ers defense and the ability for Colin Kaepernick to be a competent quarterback.

As for the Raiders I’ve simply never been able to evaluate them correctly. Their in the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively according to football outsiders but in my mind continually think they are in the top half of offenses in the NFL. Maybe (and we’re noticing a theme here) I’m just too high on Derek Carr but I’ll need to reevaluate my outlook on them going into next year.

The Good Bets

The team that I had the best return on betting this year was no doubt the Broncos. Whether I bet for them or against them I ended up making out. I watched enough of Peyton Manning in 2014 to realize that he was on a steep decline and just wouldn’t be able to keep up the gaudy numbers he had in years past. The lines at the beginning of the year in particular just seemed way to high for me and I capitalized early and in the middle of the season going against the broncos.

A big sleeper team of mine going into next year is the Tennessee Titans. When the team was healthy (and had some sort of motivation) they played really well and were often undervalued. Nearly beating (they should have won that game) the Andrew Luck led Colts and beating Drew Brees at home aren’t easy tasks. They should only be better next year with a healthy Marriota, better O-Line and the addition of Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry.

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